Reports emerged on December 30th claiming that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducted a drone strike against a Venezuelan port facility allegedly used for the processing and storage of cocaine. In the early morning hours of January 3rd, US special operations forces kidnapped Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. These land-based actions mark a dramatic shift in US policy as past strikes under “Operation Southern Spear” solely focused on small boats in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean which US officials claim are used to bring narcotics into the United States.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro claims that the port facility was operated by the National Liberation Army (ELN). Although this is unlikely, the ELN has consolidated its control in parts of Venezuela and has grown into a binational guerilla force with strong ties to Venezuela’s ruling party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). If the United States were to ultimately invade Venezuela, the ELN would be a major impediment as the group has stated on multiple occasions that they would defend Venezuelan sovereignty against any US aggression. Likewise, the group has become socially and economically embedded in Venezuela’s border states meaning if the US were to install a friendly government the ELN would continue to target security forces in its areas of influence.

The ELN in Colombia

The ELN was founded in 1964 in response to the outcome of La Violencia, a period of political violence between the two major Colombian political parties – the Liberal and Conservative parties. At the end of the violence both parties agreed to monopolize political power where the presidency would alternate between the two and key governmental positions would be split evenly in what was called the “National Front”. Coupled with poor economic conditions, particularly in Colombia’s underdeveloped rural regions, several far-left guerilla organizations formed.

Unlike the larger Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) who followed the Soviet Union’s political line, the ELN follows a blend of Cuban communism and liberation theology, an ideology that reconciles the bible with Marxism, calling for the liberation of the oppressed through structural changes in society to produce a more equitable distribution of resources and justice. Several Catholic priests served in the ranks of the ELN as they believed Christ identified with the poor and saw structural injustices such as Capitalism as grave sins. Liberation theology was influential not only in Colombia but across Latin America in the 1960s and 1970s and was adopted by many revolutionary groups including the Montoneros in Argentina and the Sandinistas in Nicaragua.

However, along with the other guerilla and paramilitary groups operating in Colombia, the ELN turned to drug trafficking, illegal mining, and other illicit methods to raise funding in the 1980s after several offensives by the Colombian Armed Forces nearly decimated the group during the 1970s. Due to this new funding the ELN steadily grew in the shadows as the Colombian state largely focused on the FARC and drug traffickers such as the Cali and Medellin Cartels. In the 1990s the ELN conducted multiple high-profile kidnappings including the largest kidnapping in Colombian history in 1999 when nearly 200 people were kidnapped for ransom from a Catholic church.

Suppression by Colombian security forces and the death of the ELNs ideological head and former Priest Manuel Perez Martinez led to several internal splinters significantly weakened the group after reaching its peak in the mid-1990s with over 5,000 personnel. However, with consistent ceasefires due to peace talks with successive Colombian presidents since the early 2000s, consolidation of the groups remaining leadership in Cuba under “Antonio Garcia”, and the demobilization of the FARC in 2016 allowed for the ELNs reemergence becoming the last politically motivated guerilla organization and the strongest non-state actor in Colombia as the CIA estimates that the group has reached its strongest point ever with 5,000-6,000 active members . Not only has the group taken over the FARCs former territories but it also has grown its presence in neighboring Venezuela with the help of Maduro and the PSUV.

Colombia and the ELNs Future

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro will step down from power in August 2026 due to Colombia’s election laws barring reelections. As such, the field of candidates that could win the presidency has narrowed down to two clear frontrunners with wildly different ideologies: Abelardo De la Espriella and Ivan Cepeda. Espriella, a corporate lawyer, has been described as a far-right politician advocating for increased law and order measures while also lambasting Petro’s policy directives throughout his term.

He is also close to other right-wing leaders in the America’s including Javier Milei, Nayib Bukele, Donald Trump. Espriella advocates for reengagement with Israel which was halted during Petro’s term and praises former President Alvaro Uribe, who enjoyed close ties with the US during his term, including the creation of the “Plan Colombia” program and was also suspected of aiding right-wing paramilitary groups. Uribe was found guilty on fraud and witness tampering charges in August due to his supposed attempts at bribing paramilitaries to deny any connections to him. However, due to procedural errors his sentence of 12 years of home imprisonment has been overturned but remains open for further legal action. With Espriella leading in the current polls at 28% compared to Cepeda’s 26.5%, it is likely that Colombia would turn again to a military solution to the countries crime and political violence which would surely lead the ELN to increase its activities in Venezuela due to the inability of Colombian security forces.

Ivan Cepeda, the son of former communist politician Manuel Cepeda who was assassinated in 1994 by the Colombian government, represents the left-wing in Colombia. A human rights activist and less radical than his father, Cepeda is well known for his involvement in organizations representing victims of state-backed crimes. Cepeda won a senate race in 2014 and was involved in the peace talks and eventual demobilization of the FARC in 2016. As such, Cepeda is a vocal critic of the Colombian right-wing and its hard stances against guerilla violence. Cepeda is part of Petros “Pacto Historico” political alliance which would likely mean he would continue Petros policy of engagement and negotiations with guerilla groups to demobilize, which has yet to bear any major successes.

Cepeda has also raised concerns regarding US interreference in the upcoming election similar to what took place in the 2025 Honduran election in which the ruling left-wing government claimed there were voter inconsistencies and called for a recount. Because of Colombia’s political polarization, the ELN will likely use the chaos of the elections to conduct attacks, spread its area of influence, and continue to strengthen its relationship with the Venezuelan government while simultaneously creating more bases and illicit funding mechanisms on Venezuelan territory outside of Colombian state control.