China recorded just 7.92 million births last year, pushing its birth rate to the lowest point since Communist Party recordkeeping began in 1949. The figures, released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, confirmed what demographers have long warned: a decade of policy reversals and financial incentives has failed to undo the demographic effects of generations spent limiting families to one child.

The country's population dropped by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster decline than the previous year. It marked the fourth consecutive annual decrease.

The Numbers Behind the Crisis

The birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 in 2024. That brief uptick last year had given some policymakers hope, but it was largely attributed to the Year of the Dragon, traditionally seen as favorable for childbearing. The snake year that followed apparently carried no such appeal.

Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, put the figures in stark historical terms. Births in 2025, he noted, matched levels last seen in 1738, when China's total population was roughly 150 million.

Deaths outpaced births significantly. The country recorded 11.31 million deaths, producing a mortality rate of 8.04 per 1,000 people—the highest since 1968.

China's fertility rate now hovers around one birth per woman, less than half the 2.1 replacement rate required to maintain population size. The country is hardly alone in this regard. South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore all report fertility rates near 1.1, but none of those nations spent 35 years enforcing a strict one-child limit.

Marriage Rates and Structural Barriers

Fewer people are getting married, and those who do are waiting longer. Marriage registrations fell more than 20 percent in 2024 to 6.1 million couples, down from 7.68 million the year before. In China, where births outside marriage remain relatively uncommon, wedding statistics tend to predict birth trends with reasonable accuracy.

A policy shift in May 2025 offered modest encouragement. Couples can now register to marry anywhere in the country rather than returning to their official place of residence. Third-quarter marriage data showed registrations up 22.5 percent from a year earlier, and several major cities reported gains. Shanghai saw a 38.7 percent increase for the full year.

But economists and demographers remain skeptical that administrative convenience will address the deeper issues.

"It's these big structural issues which are much harder to tackle, whether it's housing, and work and getting a job and getting started in life and expectations around education," Stuart Gietel-Basten, who directs the Center for Aging Science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, told the Associated Press. He added that workplace policies penalizing women for taking time off to have children require private sector change, not just government mandates.

Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit, pointed to economic anxiety among young workers. The boost from earlier fertility measures has faded, she said, and couples continue delaying marriage and children as workplace competition intensifies.

Beijing's Growing List of Incentives

The government has thrown considerable resources at the problem. Last July, Beijing announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan—about $500—per child for families. Maternity leave was extended to 158 days from 98. Officials pledged that pregnant women would face no out-of-pocket medical expenses starting this year, with costs including in vitro fertilization covered under the national insurance fund.

The total price tag for birth-boosting measures this year runs to approximately 180 billion yuan, or $25.8 billion, by Reuters estimates. Beijing also launched a national childcare subsidy offering up to 10,800 yuan annually for each child under three, the most ambitious such program since the government allowed three children per family in 2021.

Not all measures have been well received. Contraceptives, including condoms, lost their value-added tax exemption last year and now carry a 13 percent levy. Critics raised concerns about unintended consequences for public health.

Kindergartens, daycares, and matchmaking services, meanwhile, were added to the tax-exempt list—an attempt at symmetry that has done little to move the needle.

An Aging Nation Running Out of Time

The economic stakes extend well beyond nurseries and maternity wards. People over 60 now account for 23 percent of China's population, up from 22 percent a year earlier. By 2035, that cohort will reach 400 million—roughly equal to the populations of the United States and Italy combined. Hundreds of millions of workers will exit the labor force as pension budgets stretch thinner.

China has already begun adjusting. Men are now expected to work until 63 rather than 60, women until 58 rather than 55. Urbanization, which reached 68 percent last year compared to 43 percent in 2005, has compounded the challenge. Raising children costs more in cities, and young workers who migrated for jobs often lack the family support networks that helped previous generations.

Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, told the Associated Press that advances in robotics and high-tech manufacturing could partially offset workforce losses. "The bigger concern," he said, "is whether economic growth can stay afloat with a shrinking population."

China reported 5 percent GDP growth for 2025, but analysts expect that pace to slow in coming years. A shrinking consumer base compounds challenges the government already faces in shifting toward domestic consumption-driven growth.

What Comes Next

India overtook China as the world's most populous nation in 2023 and currently counts approximately 1.464 billion people. United Nations projections suggest China's population could fall to 800 million by century's end at current rates. The pool of women of childbearing age—defined as 15 to 49—is expected to shrink by more than two-thirds to under 100 million over the same period.

Yuan Xin, vice-president of the China Population Association, projected that marriages likely reached around 6.9 million last year, which could push 2026 births above 8 million. But he offered no illusions about the longer trajectory.

"In the early stages of population decline, fluctuations in births are common before the trend stabilises," he told the South China Morning Post. "But despite short-term volatility, a return to positive growth is almost off the table."