US Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) Acting Director Brett M. Holmgren, while announcing during a CSIS discussion on the evolving global terrorism landscape that in Africa, private military companies (PMCs) such as Russia's Wagner Group have fuelled recruitments of civilians into terrorist organizations, particularly in the Sahel, where the number of ISIS and al-Qaeda-linked attacks has slightly more than doubled since 2021.

What You Need to Know

Since a wave of coups d'états, beginning in August 2020, swept across the Sahel, terrorist activity has increased exponentially.

According to Holmgren, the global Jihadist threat first seen in the Middle East, and later East Africa, is making its way through the African continent.

"[The global jihadist threat is] beginning to unfold in the Sahel and West Africa, where ISIS and al-Qaeda, through its operational arm JNIM, are expanding their presence and intensifying attacks."

Noting the impact of weak governance associated with the series of coups experienced in the region, Holmgren outlined, "The number of ISIS and al-Qaeda-linked attacks in West Africa and the Sahel are on pace to double from 1,500 in 2021 to a little more than 3,000 by the end of this year."

"ISIS and JNIM have exploited weak governance, local grievances, ineffective local security forces, and political instability to spread their ideology among vulnerable populations."

Russia's Wagner Group, first deploying to Mali in December 2021, with the aim of securing General Assimi Goita's rule and to partake in counterterrorism operations against the nation's myriad of armed groups, has since committed human rights abuses against civilians, including the decapitation of civilians and the burning of fields of nomadic herders.

"Moreover, in places like Mali, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, these [terror] groups have capitalized on the actions of Russia, including PMCs like Wagner, whose so-called counterterrorism operations have made the situation worse, resulting in human rights abuses, civilian casualties, and actually increasing recruits for these organizations... If left unchecked, [African extremists] could become a much more acute long-term threat to US interests," said Holmgren.

So, What Now?

The collapse of international counterterrorism support for operations in the Sahel in the aftermath of the region's 'coup wave' enabled Russian PMCs such as Wagner and the Quasi-PMC Africa Corps to solidify relationships with those nation's ruling elites; in turn, Russian-led counterterrorism operations in the region have produced minimal results.

However, the recent entry of Turkey's CANiK Academy into Mali may signal a diversification attempt by the Bamako junta, particularly as a September terrorist attack on the capital, which killed 50 and injured an approximate 200, made international headlines and shone a light on the growing terrorist threat in the region.