Iran confirmed it will meet Britain, France, and Germany—the so‑called E3—in Istanbul on Friday, July 25ᵗʰ, with each side represented by deputy foreign ministers and the European Union’s foreign‑policy chief Kaja Kallas observing. Tehran’s spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Iran accepted “in response to the request of European countries” and will press for lifting sanctions tied to its civilian nuclear program. In the same briefing he ruled out parallel talks with Washington, telling state television that “at the moment, we have no plans to hold talks with the US”.
Key Issues on the Table
The Istanbul session is the first face‑to‑face exchange since Israel’s twelve‑day aerial war against Iran in June, which included U.S. strikes on the Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz enrichment sites and killed senior nuclear scientists. European officials say the agenda is limited to restoring transparency measures under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and discussing a phased rollback of Tehran’s enrichment above 60 percent, a level with no civilian justification. Tehran maintains its program is peaceful and blames Western pressure for its decision to accelerate enrichment and restrict inspectors.
Iran’s delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Reza Najafi, will demand written guarantees that no participating state attacks its nuclear sites during negotiations, citing last month’s strikes as evidence of “bad‑faith diplomacy,” according to an aide quoted by state media.
European Leverage and the Snapback Clock
The E3 enter the talks wielding the JCPOA’s “snapback” clause, which lets any participant re‑impose United Nations sanctions if Iran is judged non‑compliant. London, Paris, and Berlin have warned they will trigger the mechanism by the end of August absent “concrete results”. Germany’s Foreign Ministry argues snapback remains on the table “should no solution be reached” because Iran “must never come into possession of a nuclear weapon”.
Tehran counters that the Europeans “lack any legal, political, and moral standing” to invoke snapback after failing to honor the sanctions‑relief provisions of the original deal once the United States withdrew in 2018. Iranian officials further contend that support for June’s U.S.–Israeli strikes disqualifies the E3 from acting as impartial guarantors.
Iran’s Red Lines and External Backers
Iran has scheduled separate consultations with Russia and China in Tehran two days before the Istanbul meeting, aiming to coordinate opposition to any automatic sanctions restoration. Moscow already hosted Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani this week; the Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s view that the dispute requires a “political settlement” and cautioned against new penalties.
For Tehran, maintaining enrichment capacity and securing relief from U.S. secondary sanctions remain non‑negotiable. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said any attempt to force enrichment to zero would “nullify” Iran’s incentive to stay in the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty, a threat European diplomats fear could further destabilize the region.
Next Steps and Risks
If Friday’s session produces a roadmap, experts expect follow‑up meetings at ministerial level before the August 31ˢᵗ snapback deadline. Failure would likely see the E3 file a notification to the U.N. Security Council, starting a 30‑day countdown to re‑impose broad sanctions—just weeks before the JCPOA’s sunset provisions expire on October 18ᵗʰ.
Even a limited understanding could reduce the risk of further Israeli or U.S. strikes and open the door to indirect U.S.–Iran channeling via Oman, which mediated five rounds of talks earlier this year before hostilities erupted. But diplomats caution the political climate is volatile: Iran’s hard‑line parliament is pressing for a law capping any future enrichment ceiling at 20 percent, while European governments face domestic pressure after June’s Iran–Israel conflict spilled missiles over Jordan and Cyprus.
In short, the Istanbul talks offer a narrow chance to slow a spiral toward deeper sanctions and potential military confrontation. Whether Tehran and the E3 can seize it will depend on bridging wide gaps over enrichment limits, inspection access, and guarantees against future strikes—all under a snapback clock already ticking down.
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