Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition began the week with a paper-thin 67–53 majority. By Monday night that margin was gone. United Torah Judaism (UTJ) pulled its six seats after Likud failed to deliver a permanent exemption for full-time yeshiva students, leaving the bloc at 61—the lowest workable figure in a 120-member Knesset. UTJ’s walkout triggered a 48-hour cooling-off period, but its lawmakers have already resigned key posts, including Finance Committee chair Moshe Gafni. If they do not reverse course before the cooling window closes, every committee will need a new quorum, and Likud will lose the ability to move legislation without help from the opposition.

Haredi Walkout Over Conscription

The trigger was a Supreme Court ruling in June that ended decades-old deferments for ultra-Orthodox draft-aged men. Netanyahu promised to fix the issue with a simple statute, but the IDF insists it needs thousands of additional conscripts to cover Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria all at once. Competing bills moved through the Knesset—one granting blanket exemptions, another limiting service to symbolic national-service stints—but neither satisfied rabbinic leaders. On Sunday Haredi newspapers ran identical front-page headlines: “Torah Cannot Be Drafted.” UTJ’s council of sages then ordered the party out of the coalition. Shas, which holds eleven seats, says it will decide “within days” whether to leave as well. If it bolts, the government becomes a 50-seat minority.

Right-Wing Red Lines on Gaza

Even before the Haredi crisis, Netanyahu was squeezed from the other end. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have warned they will quit if the premier finalizes the U.S.-brokered 60-day cease-fire in Gaza. The far-right pair say any pause that leaves Hamas in control of Rafah betrays soldiers killed since the October 2023 invasion. Their combined thirteen seats give them veto power every time the coalition dips below 64.

That threat clashes with Likud moderates, many of whom believe a hostage-recovery deal is the only politically survivable way out of a war that has dragged on for twenty-one months and cost more than 2,600 Israeli military lives. Rank-and-file Likud mayors from Tel Aviv suburbs have begun calling openly for “a strategic pause” to re-arm and rotate exhausted reservists. Netanyahu thus faces mutually exclusive demands: halt fighting to retrieve hostages and keep Washington onside, or press the war to satisfy coalition hawks.

What Netanyahu Can Still Do

The clock, not any vote, is Netanyahu’s strongest ally. The Knesset enters summer recess on July 27ᵗʰ, after which no no-confidence motion can be filed until late October. The prime minister hopes to delay both the draft law and the cease-fire vote until after adjournment. That would give negotiators eight weeks to craft a narrower bill—perhaps delaying criminal penalties while offering modest stipends for those who do serve—without risking an immediate coalition collapse.

Another option is the “safety-net” approach. Shas or UTJ could sit in the opposition yet pledge to abstain on no-confidence motions, allowing Netanyahu to survive controversial votes with fewer than 60 seats. That would mimic arrangements once used by Labor to prop up minority governments in the 1990s. The risk: Ben Gvir and Smotrich may view any reliance on centrist opposition leader Benny Gantz as grounds to walk, bringing the bloc to 47 and forcing elections.

Most polls show Likud would lose seats if elections were held today, while a centrist bloc anchored by Gantz and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid would approach or even surpass 60. Ultra-Orthodox parties would likely return smaller as well, because draft anger has begun to seep into working-class Haredi households that already chafe at yeshiva-only expectations. That math may keep both UTJ and Shas within negotiating range despite public ultimatums.

Why It Matters

Israel’s war cabinet meets daily, but its orders depend on Knesset funding and legal authority. Without a majority, defense budgets and war-time borrowing could stall. U.S. officials worry a coalition implosion would delay border-security upgrades meant to curb Hezbollah rocket fire and slow the rollout of an Egyptian-mediated plan to reopen Gaza checkpoints. European financiers, already nervous about Israel’s credit outlook, want clarity on who will present the 2026 budget in March.

Internally, the dispute exposes Israel’s long-running fault lines: secular taxpayers asked to fight and finance a war while ultra-Orthodox men remain in study halls, and far-right settlers who equate any cease-fire with surrender. Netanyahu has navigated those gaps for decades, but never with so little parliamentary slack. Each resignation letter or rocket barrage can tip the balance. Next week’s agenda features a procedural vote on the Gaza cease-fire framework and, potentially, the first reading of a scaled-down draft bill.

If Netanyahu reaches recess with at least 60 seats—through a patched-up deal with UTJ, a Shas safety net, or abstentions from Gantz—he buys time to polish a compromise and perhaps claim a hostage-release breakthrough. If he falls short, Israel heads toward a fourth election in six years, likely under the shadow of active fronts in Gaza and Lebanon and a Supreme Court still weighing petitions on war-time powers. Either outcome will reshape Israel’s political map and determine whether the government can prosecute the war and chart a path past it.