Mexico has paused oil shipments to Cuba, President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged Tuesday, though she insisted the decision was made independently and not in response to pressure from the United States.

The confirmation came after reports that Pemex, Mexico's state oil company, had removed a scheduled January crude delivery from its shipping manifest without explanation. The vessel Swift Galaxy was set to load in mid-January and arrive in Cuba before month's end. It never did.

"It is a sovereign decision, and it is taken when necessary," Sheinbaum said at her morning press conference when asked directly whether the shipment had been canceled.

The suspension leaves Cuba, already suffering daily blackouts exceeding 20 hours in some provinces, without its primary remaining source of foreign crude.

The Timing and the Context

Mexico has supplied oil to Cuba since 2023, stepping in as Venezuelan shipments declined. Pemex sent an average of one tanker per month to the island last year, amounting to roughly 20,000 barrels per day.

That flow became even more critical after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 and imposed a naval blockade on Venezuelan oil exports. Cuba had depended on discounted Venezuelan crude for decades. With that supply line cut, Mexican oil became the island's lifeline.

Then came Donald Trump's January 11 post on Truth Social: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE."

The message was directed at Venezuela, but its implications extended further. Within days, senior Mexican government officials told Reuters they were reviewing whether to continue oil shipments to Cuba, citing fears of reprisals from Washington.

The last Pemex delivery to reach Cuba was the Ocean Mariner, which arrived on January 9 carrying approximately 85,000 barrels from Veracruz.

Sheinbaum's Balancing Act

At her press conference, Sheinbaum declined to confirm or deny reports that the shipment had been canceled. She also refused to say whether the suspension was temporary or the start of a longer pause.

"Pemex makes decisions in the contractual relationship it has with Cuba," she said. "Suspending is a sovereign decision and is taken when necessary."

When pressed on whether political considerations had influenced the timing, she pivoted to Mexico's historical solidarity with Havana. "Cuba has been under a blockade for too many years now. And this blockade has caused supply problems on the island," she said. "Mexico has always shown solidarity and Mexico will continue to show solidarity."

But she did not specify what form that solidarity would take going forward.

Jorge Piñon, an energy expert at the University of Texas who tracks tanker movements using satellite data, said Sheinbaum is "walking a tightrope" between her political rhetoric and the reality of upcoming trade negotiations with Washington. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set for review, and the Trump administration has made clear it expects cooperation on a range of issues—including cartels, migration, and, implicitly, Cuba.

Sheinbaum has spent weeks promising to release detailed data on oil exports to Cuba. She has yet to do so.

Cuba's Deepening Crisis

Cuba needs at least 110,000 barrels of oil per day to keep its economy functioning. Domestic production covers roughly 40,000 barrels, but the heavy crude from Cuban wells is suitable only for thermal power plants. The rest must be imported.

With Venezuelan shipments now blocked and Mexican deliveries suspended, the island's remaining suppliers—Russia, Iran, and Algeria—have provided only limited volumes.

The result has been a cascading energy collapse. Blackouts that once lasted a few hours now stretch past 20 in some provinces. Lines at gas stations in Havana have become routine, with drivers waiting hours to fill their tanks.

Rolando Graña, a 40-year-old airport employee, spent two hours in a fuel line on his day off Tuesday after hearing the news about Mexico. "That's going to affect us a lot more now," he said.

Carlos de Céspedes, Cuba's ambassador to Colombia, told Al Jazeera over the weekend that the island is facing "more powerful US threats than it has in the 67 years since the revolution."

What Comes Next

The Trump administration has not publicly demanded that Mexico halt oil shipments to Cuba. But senior Mexican officials told Reuters that Trump raised the issue in a January 12 phone call with Sheinbaum, though he stopped short of explicitly requesting a cutoff. Sheinbaum reportedly described the shipments as "humanitarian aid."

U.S. officials have also noticed. Mexican government sources cited by Reuters said American Navy drones have been spotted over the Gulf of Mexico, following routes similar to those taken by tankers carrying fuel to Cuba. "It's impossible not to read that as a message," one official said.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said earlier this month that U.S. policy would "allow" Mexico to continue shipping oil to Cuba. That statement came around the same time the Swift Galaxy was supposed to be loading. Whether the administration's position has shifted—or whether Mexico simply decided not to test it—remains unclear.

Analysts expect Washington to push for a more permanent halt to the shipments, particularly as negotiations over cartels, trade, and border security intensify. Mexico transferred more than 90 suspected cartel members to the United States last week, a move Sheinbaum also characterized as a sovereign decision made on Mexico's own terms.

The pattern is becoming familiar: Mexico takes actions that align with U.S. demands while insisting it is acting independently.

Whether that framing holds as Cuba's lights go out—and as Trump's pressure campaign continues—is another question. Sheinbaum promised Tuesday that any future decisions on oil shipments would be communicated "in a timely manner."