Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill following the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, according to vessel tracking data and maritime security advisories. The narrow waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, ordinarily carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports.

Since late February, major crude tankers have largely ceased transiting the corridor. Lloyd’s List reported that no traceable passages by major crude carriers were recorded after Saturday night, with only 72 ships passing through on Sunday compared with 116 the previous day.

Satellite tracking and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data indicate that tanker movements have thinned considerably, with vessels clustering near ports on either side of the strait rather than attempting passage. Bloomberg vessel-tracking data similarly showed limited transits, with activity described as “mostly frozen.”

Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that commercial traffic has effectively stopped and that hundreds of vessels are either anchored or adrift amid heightened security risks.

Attacks, Threats, and Navigation Disruptions

The slowdown follows multiple reported attacks on commercial vessels in and around the strait. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center documented incidents in which ships were struck by projectiles or explosions occurred nearby, leading to fires and injuries among crew members.

Omani authorities confirmed that a tanker was hit off the coast of Muscat, resulting in casualties and evacuation of crew. Other vessels near the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were also reported struck, though in some cases no injuries were recorded.

In addition to physical attacks, electronic interference has compounded navigational hazards. Maritime monitoring firms have reported widespread GPS and AIS jamming, with ships broadcasting distorted positions that at times appeared on land or far from their actual locations. Such interference complicates safe navigation in one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors.

Iranian officials have publicly threatened vessels attempting to transit the strait. A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander stated that ships would be set on fire if they sought passage and warned that oil would not be allowed to leave the region.

At the same time, U.S. military officials have said there is no evidence of mining activity in the waterway and that Iranian forces are not patrolling or enforcing a formal blockade. The practical effect, however, has been a de facto halt as commercial operators weigh security risks and insurance availability.

Shipping Companies and Insurers Pull Back

Major global shipping lines have responded by suspending or rerouting services. Maersk announced that it would pause sailings through affected waterways and suspend new bookings between the Indian subcontinent and Upper Gulf markets. Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, MSC, NYK Line, and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines have similarly halted or adjusted operations.

Insurers have withdrawn coverage or sharply raised premiums for vessels operating in the area, further discouraging transits. Analysts have noted that while tanker rates and war-risk insurance costs will rise, those increases are secondary to the larger impact of constrained physical flows if disruption persists.

The Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level in the strait to “critical,” reflecting the series of attacks and escalating warnings. Shipping advisories have recommended that vessels avoid the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and adjacent waters where possible.

Even absent a formal closure, analysts have described the strait as effectively closed in practice. Operators face the prospect of attack, limited insurance coverage, and electronic navigation interference, factors that collectively reduce commercial willingness to enter the corridor.

Energy Markets React to Constrained Flows

Oil markets have responded to the shipping slowdown with sharp price movements. Brent crude briefly pushed above $82 per barrel before easing, while West Texas Intermediate also rose significantly in early trading. In one session, U.S. crude climbed more than 7% and Brent rose over 8% amid uncertainty about supply continuity.

Analysts have warned that prolonged disruption could push oil toward or above $100 per barrel. Wood Mackenzie projected that prices could exceed that threshold if transit flows are not re-established quickly and other financial institutions have outlined higher “worst-case” scenarios in the event of extended supply interruptions.

Approximately 15 to 20 million barrels of crude oil per day typically pass through the strait. While alternative pipelines exist in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, their capacity cannot fully offset the volumes normally shipped via the waterway.

Liquefied natural gas markets have also reacted. European natural gas futures rose sharply after Qatar announced a halt in LNG production linked to the conflict, underscoring the strait’s role in global energy supply chains.

Global Economic Implications

The Strait of Hormuz is widely regarded as the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, linking major Middle Eastern producers to markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran all depend heavily on maritime exports through the corridor.

A sustained slowdown would have implications beyond energy markets. Higher crude prices typically filter into retail gasoline prices within weeks. Research cited by economists indicates that a $10 increase per barrel can translate into roughly a 25-cent rise per gallon in the United States.

In Europe, where fuel taxes comprise a larger share of pump prices, the broader impact would likely appear through industrial and transportation costs. Economists have estimated that a sustained $15 per barrel increase could add approximately 0.5 percentage points to consumer inflation in the eurozone.

Market participants note that the magnitude and duration of disruption will determine whether current price spikes persist. A short-lived slowdown could be absorbed by existing inventories and incremental production increases announced by OPEC+.

However, if tanker traffic remains constrained for weeks rather than days, analysts warn that the combination of reduced seaborne flows, elevated insurance costs, and navigation hazards could have lasting effects on global trade and energy pricing.