This past week, the oil market spiked as expected in response to Washington’s Saturday strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. The Fordow facility—Tehran's state-of-the-art nuclear installation—was the primary target, hit by B-2 bombers that successfully dropped GBU-57A bunker-buster armaments. The other two facilities were targeted with Tomahawk missiles launched from U.S. submarines in the region.

The initial market reaction included a sharp rise in both oil futures and the U.S. Dollar Index at the opening bell. The natural-gas market followed suit due to fears of an imminent Iranian retaliation, which was initially expected in the morning but occurred later in the afternoon, when Iran launched missile attacks on U.S. military bases.

Iranian Retaliation and Gulf Shipping Risk

Six missiles were reportedly fired at the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which had been evacuated a week prior—indicating Washington was likely aware of a coming retaliatory strike and had taken precautionary measures. Iran had issued warnings ahead of the attack, and reports confirm that another missile targeted a U.S. base in Iraq, as verified by a U.S. defense official.

These developments had significant implications for the oil market, as concerns grew that crude-oil exports could be disrupted. The most critical chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz. Although an Iranian council has discussed the possibility of cutting off the strait, the Iranian leadership has yet to make a formal statement. A more plausible outcome involves the seizure of ships or sabotage of oil facilities in the Gulf region, particularly those operated by OPEC+ countries.

Completely shutting the strait remains unlikely, largely due to Iran's vital oil-trade relationship with China. Approximately 60 percent of Beijing's crude imports come from Tehran, and recent reports of five Chinese cargo planes delivering equipment to support Iran suggest that maintaining supply flow remains a priority for both nations.

Currency Swings and Equity Highlights

On the currency front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose early in the day before easing, mirroring the pattern seen in oil futures. After the missile attacks on U.S. bases, the index surged again. In times of conflict, investors typically move their portfolios into safer assets to mitigate potential losses—especially when the Middle East, a hub of global oil exports, is involved. As expected, the dollar spiked following the strikes and then dipped slightly after the missiles were intercepted by Qatari defense systems.

Crude-oil futures are currently down to $68.66 per barrel, which is surprisingly low given the geopolitical tension. However, individual companies such as the Oil-Drilling Corporation of America rose 3.17 percent this afternoon. Similarly, Dollar General Corporation gained 2.38 percent, while the U.S. Dollar Index slipped by 0.28 percent after news emerged that the missiles had been intercepted and following reassuring remarks from the President on the safety of the situation abroad.

Strategic Takeaways

This sequence of events revealed clear trading patterns: increased investor caution after missile launches and relative calm after their interception. Notably, President Trump has managed to stabilize oil prices despite the conflict, which is a rare feat. His decision not to respond militarily to Iran's retaliatory attacks further reassured the markets and contributed to the rally.