Guineans went to the polls Sunday in the West African nation's first presidential election since a military coup four years ago, with General Mamady Doumbouya, the leader who seized power in 2021, widely expected to win against a field of eight largely unknown challengers. The election marks the culmination of a transition process that critics say has been marred by restrictions on opposition activity, enforced disappearances and curbs on press freedom.
About 6.7 million registered voters cast ballots at roughly 24,000 polling stations across the mineral-rich country, with provisional results expected within 48 to 72 hours. Voting was largely smooth across the country, though turnout appeared low in many areas, due in part to opposition parties calling for a boycott.
Doumbouya, a former special forces commander believed to be 41 years old, initially pledged not to run for office and promised to return Guinea to civilian rule by the end of 2024. A constitutional referendum in September removed a ban on junta members seeking office and extended presidential terms from five to seven years, paving the way for his candidacy.
"The man who presented himself as the restorer of democracy chose to become its gravedigger," the opposition coalition Forces vives de Guinée said in a statement last month after Doumbouya officially filed his intent to run.
Opposition figures sidelined
The presidential race is notable not for those on the ballot but for those who are not. The main opposition leaders have been barred from running, detained or driven into exile.
Ousted President Alpha Condé, 87, whom Doumbouya overthrew in September 2021, was excluded because he exceeds the new constitution's maximum age limit of 80. Longtime opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea, which has been suspended, remains in exile and was disqualified because his primary residence is not in Guinea. Former Prime Minister Sidya Touré, also in exile, is over the age limit.
Two additional opposition candidates, former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds.
More than 50 political parties were dissolved last year in what authorities described as an effort to "clean up the political chessboard," a move that drew widespread criticism.
Doumbouya's closest challenger is Abdoulaye Yero Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea, who served as education minister under Condé. Analysts say none of the eight remaining candidates pose a serious threat.
"Let's not kid ourselves: there can be no other opponent who can challenge him," Guinean political analyst Bella Bah told Reuters.
UN warns of intimidation and disappearances
The United Nations human rights chief warned Friday that conditions surrounding the election risk undermining its credibility.
"Ahead of Sunday's presidential election in Guinea, the civic and political space has been severely restricted, marked by intimidation of opposition actors, apparently politically-motivated enforced disappearances, and constraints on media freedom," Volker Turk said in a statement.
Turk said the incidents, timed and seemingly targeted, were intimidating opposition figures, disrupting campaigns and discouraging voter mobilization. "They contribute to a climate of fear among political actors and the population at large," he added.
The government did not respond to requests for comment on Turk's statement.
Security was heavy across Conakry and other parts of Guinea, with nearly 12,000 police officers among security forces mobilized and checkpoints set up along major roads. Authorities said Saturday that security forces "neutralized" an armed group with "subversive intentions threatening national security" after gunshots were heard in Conakry's Sonfonia neighborhood.
Opposition leader Diallo condemned the vote as "an electoral charade" aimed at giving legitimacy to "the planned confiscation of power."
Doumbouya touts infrastructure and mining projects
Doumbouya kept a low profile during the campaign, leaving surrogates to make his case. At a closing rally Thursday in Conakry, he skipped a speech but danced with his wife while Congolese musician Koffi Olomide performed. He wore a white baseball cap and track jacket emblazoned with the name of his movement: "Generation for Modernity and Development."
His campaign has centered on major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since taking power. The junta's most significant achievement has been advancing the Simandou iron ore project, a 75 percent Chinese-owned mega-mining venture at the world's largest untapped iron ore deposit, which began production last month after decades of delays caused by political instability and corruption.
Authorities say a national development plan tied to Simandou aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.
Doumbouya's government this year also revoked EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation's license after a refinery dispute, transferring its assets to a state-owned firm. The turn toward resource nationalism, echoed in neighboring Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, has boosted his popularity, as has his relative youth in a country where the median age is about 19.
"For us young people, Doumbouya represents the opportunity to send the old political class into retirement," Mohamed Kaba, a mechanic in Conakry, told Reuters. "There is a lot of corruption right now, but I hope these things will be sorted out."
Poverty persists despite mineral wealth
Despite Guinea's rich mineral resources, including the world's largest bauxite reserves, more than half of the country's 15 million people are experiencing record levels of poverty and food insecurity, according to the World Food Program. The World Bank puts the poverty rate at 52 percent.
"This vote is the hope of young people, especially for us unemployed," said Idrissa Camara, an 18-year-old Conakry resident who told the Associated Press he has been unemployed since graduating from university five years ago. "I'm forced to do odd jobs to survive. I hope this vote will improve the standard of living and the quality of life in Guinea."
The election is the latest such vote among African countries that have experienced a surge in coups in recent years. At least 10 countries on the continent have seen soldiers forcefully seize power after accusing elected leaders of failing to provide good governance and security. While Guinea has remained under the Economic Community of West African States umbrella, fellow juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have split from the regional bloc to form the pro-Russian Alliance of Sahel States.
If it holds, the Guinean election will be the first in any of the junta-run states since 2020.
"This election will open a new page in Guinea's history and mark the country's return to the league of nations," said Guinea political analyst Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité. "Doumbouya is undoubtedly the favorite in this presidential election because the main opposition political parties have been sidelined and the General Directorate of Elections, the body that oversees the presidential election, is under the supervision of the government."
Guinea experienced a rare democratic transition with the 2010 election of Condé, the country's first freely elected president. Under Doumbouya, the country has effectively "reverted to what it has essentially known since independence in 1958: authoritarian regimes, whether civilian or military," Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank Wathi, told AFP.
There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.
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