Iraqis voted in a parliamentary election seen as unlikely to deliver major reforms, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s bloc expected by analysts to win the most seats but fall short of a majority. A fragmented result would set up weeks or months of bargaining among Shi’ite, Sunni, and Kurdish blocs to form a government and choose a prime minister.

What’s on the ballot and who’s running

The vote will shape Iraq’s next parliament and determine whether Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani secures a second term. Sudani, who took office in October 2022 after a year-long deadlock, is backed by the Shi’ite Coordination Framework, a coalition that includes parties with ties to Iran as well as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law. Analysts expect his alliance to place first but not command an outright majority, a familiar outcome in Iraq’s post-2003 politics. Sunni and Kurdish parties, themselves divided, are positioned as kingmakers in the post-election talks that traditionally divide senior posts among communities.

Why many Iraqis expect little change

Iraq’s large young electorate has grown skeptical that elections will translate into better services or jobs. Oil still accounts for over 90% of state revenue, yet unemployment—especially among the under-30s—remains high, and summer power shortages persist in much of the country. The 2019 protest movement, which demanded jobs, an end to corruption, and accountability, reshaped politics but saw limited follow-through; rights groups and the United Nations have documented slow progress on accountability for protest-related killings. Sudani has emphasized service delivery, anti-corruption measures, and big-ticket projects like the “Development Road” linking the Grand Faw port to Turkey, but many voters say the system still rewards established parties and patronage networks over reform.

The coalition math and a familiar timetable

No single bloc has secured a majority in Iraq’s recent elections, and government formation has typically been protracted. After the October 2021 vote, parties took roughly a year to agree on a government; previous cycles in 2010 and 2018 also stretched for months. If results are close, negotiators from Shi’ite, Sunni, and Kurdish factions will bargain over cabinet posts, the speakership, and Kurdish-region budget and oil arrangements. Baghdad-Erbil financial ties remain a key pressure point: oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been largely halted since March 2023, squeezing the Kurdistan Regional Government’s revenues and complicating salary payments, while transfers from Baghdad under Iraq’s multi-year federal budget have been contentious and politically sensitive.

Security and foreign stakes

While large-scale fighting has receded, Iraq still faces low-level Islamic State activity in rural areas and periodic tensions involving armed groups aligned with political parties. The country remains a venue for U.S.-Iran friction: around 2,500 U.S. troops continue to support Iraqi forces against Islamic State, even as Baghdad and Washington have discussed transitioning the coalition mission. The next government’s approach to security forces, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and foreign military presence will influence Iraq’s stability and its ties with neighbors and partners. Energy policy is also a geopolitical issue. Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest producer, and decisions on production, infrastructure, and power imports from Iran intersect with domestic service delivery and regional diplomacy.

What this means for ordinary Iraqis

For most Iraqis, the near-term questions are practical: whether the next government can sustain salary payments, keep electricity flowing through the summer, and create private-sector jobs rather than expanding the already large public payroll. Investors will watch for signs of budget discipline, movement on the stalled Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline, and progress on projects linking Iraq’s grid to Gulf power supplies. Politically, turnout and the performance of independents will indicate whether disillusioned voters are re-engaging or staying home.