Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), Al-Qaeda's branch in the Sahel, launched a coordinated assault on Malian towns and villages on July 1st. Several army bases and police stations were targeted in the offensive, as well as critical infrastructure. The Malian Armed Forces claimed to have killed 80 JNIM fighters in the attacks, with JNIM stating that they had overrun 7 Malian military positions. JNIM has not released any footage to back this claim, making it unlikely that the attack had any strategic significance for the group. Although the offensive was a strategic setback for the group, it was a symbolic victory, particularly after the Malian Junta has proclaimed an increasingly stable security situation.

Jama'at Nasr al-Islam (JNIM)

JNIM was formed in 2017 as a merger between several salfist jihadist groups operating in Africa's Sahel region including: Ansar Dine, Katibat Macina, al-Mourabitoun, and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). First forming in northern Mali, the group has since spread to Burkina Faso and Niger with several attacks being conducted in other African countries including Togo, Benin, and Ivory Coast. From 2017-2019, the group was believed to have cooperated with the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS), including committing fighters to the 2017 Tongo Tongo ambush that killed 4 U.S. Green Berets and 4 soldiers from Niger in exchange for loot from the ambush. However, due to ideological differences the two groups had a violent split beginning in 2020 that resulted in over 700 fighters being killed in 125 separate engagements. Due to the natural wilderness coupled with the lack of a security apparatus in much of the Sahel, JNIM has established strong control over rural areas on the Malian-Burkinabe border which allows fighters to move freely from one state to the other. This also keeps a steady stream of funds flowing to JNIM, particularly through taxing those living in the regions it controls and lucrative smuggling routes connecting the tri border region of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

The Sahelian States Newest Ally

One possible reason for the Malian armed forces successful defense is due to the presence of Russian mercenaries, which have been instrumental in providing support for the Sahelian Juntas of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Historically the Wagner Group was the premier Russian private military company (pmc) operating in the Sahel region of Africa, not only supporting the regions governments but also extracting vast amounts of resources such as gold in exchange for their services, with much of it funding Russia's war in Ukraine. After France agreed to withdraw their forces from their former colonial possessions which ended in December of 2025, has since seen Russia's influence grow to becoming the primary advisory force for the region.

However, due to Wagner's infamous 2023 failed mutiny as well as the increasingly dire security situation in the Sahel the Russian government has decided to replace the Wagner Group with the Africa Corps, a "private" military company that is directly controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defense. This allows the Russian government to have a direct say in the operations, logistics, and funding of the group while also allowing for plausible deniability about the groups operations. Although the Africa Corps is a distinct entity many Wagner fighters in Africa have since been transitioned into the group, with the rest destined to leave the country by the end of June. This has led many analysts to believe that Russia's role in the Sahel may switch from one of active combat operations to more advisory, training, and logistical support. However, videos released in late June claim to show Russian Africa Corps fighters killing a local Malian ISIS commander which could indicate Russia plans to continue frontline operations.

Jihadist Violence Continues to Grow

Due to the withdrawal of French, US, and UN forces from the Sahel countries after a series of military led coups, JNIM and other militant groups took the opportunity to rapidly expand across the region. JNIM has adopted a new strategy due to the lack of a security threat in their base areas to expand their influence to other areas in West Africa by sending seasoned commanders to create new cells, further tightening the groups control over the region. This general disorder in the region due to the changing of government and the removal of Western forces has led to a series of setbacks for the Sahel states, who are struggling to maintain control over both Jihadist violence and the image of safety they continue to push to their citizens.

Raids carried out by JNIM on military bases, checkpoints, and police stations are a nearly daily occurrence with images released by the group themselves showing large caches of weapons and equipment seized from Malian, Burkinabe, and Nigerien forces. Attacks have also killed hundreds of troops since 2020, including one attack in May that allegedly resulted in over 200 Burkinabe soldiers being killed. The recent JNIM offensive in Mali demonstrates this tactic, with the group claiming to have killed dozens of Malian troops and destroying over 100 vehicles. However, the Malian army released footage that showed over 80 dead JNIM militants making it more likely that the attack was successfully repelled. This follows a recent trend in JNIM attacks targeting Sahelian urban centers to further put pressure on the regions Junta's, although this has yet to lead to any territorial gain for the group, particularly due to the large security presence in urban centers coupled with Russian paramilitary forces.

Mounting Security Concerns in the Sahel

As JNIM continues to target urban centers and infrastructure, including a recent assault June 2nd assault on Timbuktu and its airport that reportedly led to the deaths of 30 Malian soldiers and Africa Corps advisors, JNIM continues to consolidate its control over the Sahel's rural regions establishing government and tax collection programs. In addition to JNIM, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS) continues to operate mainly in Niger where the group regularly conducts ambushes and raids on isolated army posts further straining resources. Separatist movements also continue to gain strength, particularly the Azawad Liberation Front that operates in Northern Mali. The group has become increasingly proficient conducting an ambush in June that killed dozens of Malian and Africa Corps fighters. This compounded with growing political unrest amid Junta rule has led to a situation that allows militant organizations to thrive with relatively little threat of state intervention, which has led to the consolidation of their quasi-state functions.