In a surprising change of course, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced on Monday that he would not be interested in reopening diplomatic engagement with the US following Donald Trump's inauguration. Trump made history in his first term by being the first US President to set foot in North Korea and expanded US-North Korean relations to unprecedented levels. But now, with a unique foreign policy situation unfolding in Ukraine, it seems that Kim's priorities have shifted.

First Term Results

In 2018, Trump met Kim in Singapore. This was the first time in history that a sitting US President met face-to-face with a North Korean supreme leader, and it had the potential to drastically shift Indo-Pacific dynamics. Here, Trump and Kim signed a joint statement that the two countries would establish lasting peace, that they would work toward the denuclearization of North Korea, and that the remains of US soldiers from the Korean War would be recovered. Indeed, 55 boxes including the remains of an estimated 50-100 soldiers were repatriated. Unfortunately, over 7,000 US servicemen are still considered missing from the Korean War, and with diplomatic relations remaining frozen, this is not expected to change.

In 2019, the two met in Hanoi, Vietnam, but this summit was not able to reach such a cordial conclusion. The meeting ended abruptly after the two were unable to agree on sanction relief and denuclearization terms. Here, Kim demanded total sanction relief in exchange for dismantling a single nuclear facility in Yongbyon. Trump wanted complete denuclearization, and this was not acceptable to North Korea.

Later that year, Trump became the first sitting US President to go into North Korea. Although symbolically significant, this had no real outcome and instead marked the effective suspension of US-North Korea diplomacy. After the event, denuclearization discussions remained frozen. Just 9 months after their third meeting, the COVID-19 pandemic took a massive toll on the world, pushing the issue of North Korean denuclearization lower on the to-do list.

After that, Joe Biden took office and Kim was unwilling to speak with him. Now it seems that the same policy applies to Trump.

What Changed?

There are several apparent reasons for why Kim doesn't want to talk to Trump. To put it simply, North Korea is now in a very different situation than they were 8 years ago. Kim has recently greatly expanded relations with Russia, providing troops toward Putin's war in Ukraine. Putin paid Kim back in the form of oil and missiles (in violation of UN sanctions), further bolstering North Korea's strategic independence. Remember: The main benefit offered to North Korea from a relationship with the US was a defense commitment from the United States. It appears now that Kim has found this security elsewhere.

Kim has also repeatedly indicated a desire to be respected as a nuclear power, which is impossible on any terms acceptable to the United States. Kim learned in Hanoi that partial denuclearization wasn't enough, and that seemed to turn him off to the relationship.

The last few months have also seen concerning activity in/near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Kim has been destroying the roads and railways connecting the two states. He's doing this in an effort to symbolically and physically separate his country from the South. But he's also reintroduced heavy weaponry and artillery brigades to the DMZ in response to South Korean drone surveillance. Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, has repeatedly labeled these drone incursions "an unforgivable affront," and she and her brother have both threatened retaliation if they continue.

Ultimately, the future of the relationship between the United States and North Korea is uncertain. As engagements with US enemies expand, there remains little room for agreements between Washington and Pyongyang.