Throughout the month of October 2024, Russian forces advanced in the Donetsk region at the fastest rate in well over a year. Moving towards the city of Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian supply hub, Moscow's forces have gained tactical advantage in the region. Throughout August and September, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation crawled their way forward from the area around Avdiivka, a city captured earlier this year. However, this advance has picked up in the face of Ukrainian manpower and supply issues.

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The Donetsk Oblast has been one of Russia's primary targets since April 2022, when Moscow gave up on its attempts to capture Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, following almost two months of bloody, stalemated fighting north of the city.

Around October 31st, the city of Selydove was believed to have been lost after weeks of Russian forces slowly encircling the Ukrainian defenders. With the city having fallen to the Kremlin's forces, no major cities or towns lay between them and Pokrovsk. The attackers had adopted a similar strategy that had allowed them to capture Vuhledar to the south just a few weeks earlier, a small town that had resisted Russian conquest for two and a half years.

To the southeast of Selydove, the city of Kurakhove is also under threat, as Russian forces close in from both the south and east. The attackers have advanced from the east bank of the Kurakhove reservoir, with the town of Kurakhiva having fallen to Russian forces in the early days of November. Since the capture of Vuhledar to the south, the Ukrainians have had little to no defensive fortifications to prevent a northward advance towards the city. Most of the southern Donetsk is open flatland, with little natural defensive barriers to slow an advance.

Part of the reasons for Ukraine's struggles in this area are due to manpower shortages that have plagued the Ukrainian military not just in Donetsk but all of the frontline. Earlier in the year, Ukraine's parliament passed a law increasing mobilization, but this has not fully come to fruition even months later. Making matters worse, Ukraine sent some of its most elite brigades in the Kursk Oblast of Russia, taking away critical assets from the frontline and replacing them with reserve or territorial defense units.

It has been months since the United States passed its last major Ukraine military aid through Congress and likely will not see one until the United States election is complete in early November.

If Russia is to take Pokrovsk, it could have disastrous effects on the Ukrainian defense throughout their remaining strongholds in Donetsk. The TO504 highway from Pokrovsk heads directly to the frontline city of Chasiv Yar, a town that has seen intense fighting since Russian forces captured the now infamous city of Bakhmut. Moscow's forces have reached the eastern edge of the city, slowly attempting to encircle the Ukrainian defenders. With their primary logistics route cut off, Ukrainian troops may have no choice but to abandon the city.

Following Chasiv Yar, the final Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk would be the longtime frontline cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. A decade ago, these two large cities were under siege by separatist militants, a teaser for what was to come. Militants of the Donetsk People's Republic had attempted to capture both cities in mid-2014 but ultimately were expelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In 2022, Russian forces had approached Sloviansk from the north near the town of Lyman but were driven back by the Ukrainian late 2022 counteroffensive. If Russian forces take Chasiv Yar, which lies on a large hill overlooking the region, they will have an easy time shelling positions near these two cities with artillery fire.

Just to the south, Russian ground forces have faced heavy fighting in the towns of Toretsk and New York. For several months, Ukrainian and Russian infantrymen have faced off in intense urban fighting. Similar to Chasiv Yar, the cutting of the Pokrovsk supply line would likely bring Ukrainian defense of these towns to an end as their logistics collapse. From there, little defensive locations remain until the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk axis, allowing Russian forces to advance on those two cities from multiple directions.

However, Russian conquest of all of Donetsk Oblast is in no way guaranteed. Despite recent rapid advances by the Kremlin, these have come at a massive cost. Ukraine's own Defense Ministry has claimed Russian losses at 1000 casualties per day, a sobering number that far outpaces the worth of the territory gained. With news of North Korean troops entering service in Russia's war effort (albeit these are focused in the Kursk Oblast within Russia's own territory), it gives credence to the idea that Russia knows it does not have an unlimited amount of men.

It is widely expected that Russia may face equipment shortages sometime in 2025 as well, as Soviet stockpiles of tanks and armored vehicles begin to run low. There are questions on exactly how many tanks Russia has left in its Soviet-era stockpiles, with some sources claiming a mere nine percent of T-72 tanks remain in shortage. Ukraine has claimed Russia has gone through 1000 tanks a month, a stark difference from the mere 50 tanks that Russia's defense industry is able to build per month.

It is possible that Russia is moving to seize as much territory as possible ahead of the United States election, with hopes of being able to freeze the conflict along the frontlines. If a change in American leadership is seen as being able to secure a ceasefire on current lines, it would be logical from Russia's perspective to take as much land in the Donetsk Oblast and elsewhere as possible. Regardless, Russia's current offensive in Donetsk is not sustainable in the long run, meaning a capture of the full province may manage to allude Vladimir Putin's grasp even if his forces continue moving at current speeds.