President Donald Trump on Sunday warned Cuba to strike a deal with the United States "before it is too late," vowing to halt all Venezuelan oil and financial support to the communist-run island following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last week.
"THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
"Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela," Trump added. "In return, Cuba provided 'Security Services' for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last weeks U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn't need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years."
Trump did not elaborate on what kind of deal he was proposing.
Venezuela is Cuba's biggest oil supplier, but no cargoes have departed from Venezuelan ports to the Caribbean country since the capture of Maduro by U.S. forces in early January amid a strict U.S. oil blockade on the OPEC country, shipping data shows.
Cuban leadership responds defiantly
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejected Trump's threat on social media, suggesting the U.S. had no moral authority to force a deal on Cuba.
"Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. Nobody dictates what we do," Díaz-Canel said on X. "Cuba does not attack; it has been attacked by the U.S. for 66 years, and it does not threaten; it prepares, ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood."
Díaz-Canel added that "those who hysterically accuse our nation today do so out of rage at this people's sovereign decision to choose their political model." He railed against the "draconian measures" imposed by the U.S. on Cuba.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez said in a separate post on X that Cuba had the right to import fuel from any suppliers willing to export it. He also denied that Cuba had received financial or other "material" compensation in return for security services provided to any country.
The U.S. "behaves like an out-of-control criminal hegemon that threatens peace and security, not only in Cuba and this hemisphere, but throughout the entire world," Rodríguez posted.
The Cuban government said 32 of its military personnel were killed during the American operation last weekend that captured Maduro. The personnel from Cuba's two main security agencies were in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, as part of an agreement between Cuba and Venezuela.
Oil supply crisis deepens for Cuba
Cuba relies on imported crude and fuel mainly provided by Venezuela, and Mexico in smaller volumes, purchased on the open market to keep its power generators and vehicles running.
As its operational refining capacity dwindled in recent years, Venezuela's supply of crude and fuel to Cuba has fallen. But the South American country is still the largest provider with some 26,500 barrels per day exported last year, according to ship tracking data and internal documents of state-run PDVSA, which covered roughly 50% of Cuba's oil deficit.
Mexico has emerged in recent weeks as a critical alternative oil supplier to the island, but the supply remains small, according to shipping data.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said last week that her country had not increased supply volumes, but given recent political events in Venezuela, Mexico had turned into an "important supplier" of crude to Cuba.
Meanwhile, Caracas and Washington are progressing on a $2 billion deal to supply up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. with proceeds to be deposited in U.S. Treasury-supervised accounts, a major test of the emerging relationship between Trump and interim President Delcy Rodríguez.
On Friday, Trump hosted a lineup of U.S. and international oil executives representing key sectors of Venezuela's energy supply chain, including producers, refiners and traders. Trump pledged to bring U.S. companies back to the forefront of Venezuelan oil production and exports, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Intelligence assessments paint grim picture of Cuban economy
U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba's economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for Trump's prediction that the island is "ready to fall," Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the confidential assessments.
The CIA's view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela could make governing more difficult for Díaz-Canel.
The island's communist government has said U.S. sanctions cost the country more than $7.5 billion between March 2024 and February 2025.
Trump has said previously that the Cuban economy, battered by years of an American embargo, would slide further with the ouster of Maduro.
"It's going down," Trump said of Cuba. "It's going down for the count."
Trump also responded to another account's social media post predicting that his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, will be president of Cuba: "Sounds good to me!" Trump said.
Cubans divided on future amid economic hardship
In Cuba, some residents expressed defiance, while others said the country will be affected by the loss of Venezuelan oil.
Havana produce vendor Alberto Jiménez, 45, said Cuba would not back down in the face of Trump's threat.
"That doesn't scare me. Not at all. The Cuban people are prepared for anything," Jiménez said.
It is hard for many Cubans to imagine a situation much worse. The island's government has been struggling to keep the lights on. A majority live without electricity for much of the day, and even the capital Havana has seen its economy crippled by hours-long rolling blackouts.
Shortages of food, fuel and medicine have put Cubans on edge and have prompted a record-breaking exodus, primarily to the United States, in the past five years.
Havana resident and parking attendant Maria Elena Sabina, a 58-year-old born shortly after Fidel Castro took power, said it was time for Cuba's leaders to make changes amid so much suffering.
"There's no electricity here, no gas, not even liquefied gas. There's nothing here," Sabina said. "So yes, a change is needed, a change is needed, and quickly."
Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California–San Diego who has served in several high-ranking U.S. national security roles, told Reuters that Cuba's economic conditions are "certainly very bad."
"When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don't think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family," Feinberg said. "On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets."
Rep. Carlos Giménez of Florida personally thanked Trump for getting involved in Cuban affairs.
"I was born in Cuba & forced from home shortly after the Communist takeover. Today, I represent my community in Congress," Giménez wrote on X. "Thank you, President Trump, first Venezuela & next is Cuba. We will be forever grateful. Our hemisphere must be the hemisphere of liberty!"
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